Mortgage Purchase Applications up Slightly thisThanksgiving 2017

We see mortgage rates heading down in to the US Holiday with Purchase Mortgage Applications up just slightly as we head into Black Friday Shopping Season. As spending turns to things other than housing will the Purchase Market continue to hold up?

I do expect the coming months to stay very strong due to record high equity markets.  Investors will want to diversify their investments to protect their gains.

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Trump Rally Causes Rate to Explode Higher!

So we are now just more than 5 weeks after the one of the biggest political upsets in history and we can start to access how the worlds financial markets are reacting. While stocks are now enjoying one of the all time largest upside moves in a similar time period, rates in the US Bond Market are also exploding higher. What this means for the overall economy can be reasonably surmised

You will have the increasing confidence with the stock portfolios showing great gains for most of us. That confidence will be buffered however by the realization that carrying costs on everyone’s debt will no lurch upwards. For those of you with adjustable rate mortgages or with HELOC’s that float with the prime rate get ready to pay up in coming months.

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Blackstone’s massive move into US Real Estate and Financing hurting stock!

It looks like the more that BX moves to be one of our nations top landlords and Real Estate Banker, the more it’s shareholders are getting crushed.  You can see by the chart below that the last half year that the stock has been crushed over 29%.  Of course you did get half of the 6.80% dividend to comfort your huge losses.  LOL.  Are they still among the smartest guys in the room?

Smartest guys in the room?

Smartest guys in the room?

 

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US Government Bonds were very strong on Friday into the Big Selloff in Equities

TLT vs SPX 12.10.15

Mortgage rates had a nice day and this is encouraging given the reality that the FED will most likely be moving short term interest rates higher on the 16th at their next FOMC meeting.  When the world starts to panic most investors turn to the safety of our bond market.  This chart shows the opposite flows for the S&P 500 vs the TLT, the ETF for the medium term Government Bonds.

 

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Weekly Yield Curve from US Treasury 12.4.15

Rates had a very up and down week with it looking more and more like the Fed will raise rates this month.

 

Rates creeping up

Rates creeping up

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Mortgage Rates Drop Again

We had a nice rally in the proxy for the mortgage bond market with the TLT rallying to a price of 116 before backing off a bit late on Friday afternoon.  When the TLT rises the 10 year yield on the US T Bonds drop and on Friday it hit a 2014 low of 2.38%!  Mortgage rates are now close to 4% for a 30 year Fixed Mortgage.  The bombings that were ordered by the President seems to have had some influence in this shocking move lower.

 

TLT 8.9.14

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HARP 2.0 and Florida Underwater Properties pump up the volume.

With Harp 2.0 starting to become available now to homeowners across the country and the state of Florida this month, mortgage volume is seeing a nice spike.

Right now it is mainly the loans held by Freddie Mac and not Fannie Mae that have the unlimited LTV’s that are the hallmark of this newest version of the HARP program. When the Fannie loans become eligible next month we should see another spike higher in loan volume. All hands on deck for the mortgage origination companies!

HARP 2.0 Helping to spike volume

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Mortgage Market Ends Week Flat after strong week

It was a holiday shortened day in the Mortgage Bond Market on Friday.  The week was a stellar one as the stock market was hammered pretty good due to the trouble in Europe.  As we get ready for HARP 2.0 this coming December, Ben B is juicing the mortgage market in a major way.  Go Big or Go Home seems to be the thought process for the time being.  Get your Refi on!

Mortgage Bond Market has flat day to end the week

MBS Market near best prices at the end of the week

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Thanksgiving Day 2011

As we get ready for game 1 of our Thanksgiving Football Feast, the business of Detroit comes into focus. How many car commercials we see and how many US workers are happy today they have a job! It all started in Detroit!

Go Lions, derail the Packers today, I know you can.

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Looks like the recession is baked in at this point!

I am a big follower of ECRI and I find their stuff right on much more often then most prognosticators.

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